Genius Sports Locks In Kalshi and Polymarket With Official Data Deals

Genius Sports has signed official data, integrity, and marketing agreements with both Kalshi and Polymarket, giving one supplier a central role in the settlement layer for the two largest prediction market operators in the United States.

The company signed with Polymarket on August 4 and with Kalshi a day later. CEO Mark Locke outlined the strategy on Genius Sports’ second-quarter earnings call, framing prediction markets as the next compounding playbook after sports betting infrastructure.

What the deals cover

Kalshi gains real-time official data across Genius Sports’ soccer portfolio, including the English Premier League, Serie A, Liga MX, the Argentine Primera División, and Ligue 1, and will use those feeds as its single source of truth for settling sports event contracts. The agreement also covers information-sharing processes, restrictions on certain market types, and marketing through Genius Sports’ Legend-owned media properties.

Polymarket’s deal covers the same settlement data and integrity services, plus exclusive U.S. livestreaming rights and league intellectual property for select competitions, including Serie A. That package took effect immediately for eligible U.S. users.

“What we’ve established with Kalshi and Polymarket is a foundation upon which we will layer more content, more services, and more territories over time. It is the same compounding playbook that you have watched us execute in sports betting, now applied to prediction markets.” Mark Locke, CEO, Genius Sports

Q2 already showed early payoff

Genius Sports reported Q2 revenue of $195.5 million, up 65% year-over-year and above its $185 million guidance. Adjusted EBITDA rose 54% to roughly $52.6 million. Media Technology, Content and Services jumped 193% to $78.2 million, while Betting Technology climbed 28% to $117.4 million.

The company said it already generated meaningful prediction market revenue in Q2, before either agreement was signed, and raised full-year guidance to $1.005B-$1.025B in revenue and $285M-$295M in adjusted EBITDA.

The NFL stays on the sidelines

Not every league is moving. The NFL has not partnered with any prediction market operator, and league officials have argued that current CFTC proposals fall short on consumer protection and manipulation risks. Genius Sports holds exclusive NFL data rights through the 2029 season. Locke said he does not expect NFL approval this season, while casting holdout leagues as validation that official data infrastructure will matter when they eventually move.

Decoded Take

Genius Sports is not trying to be a prediction market, it is trying to be the rails. By sitting under both Kalshi and Polymarket, it recreates the sports-betting supplier model: own the verified feeds, sell integrity as a product, and expand territory by territory.

The strategic prize is category definition. As more platforms enter prediction markets, data ownership and settlement trust become the real moat, especially while the NFL and NBA watch from outside. If those leagues eventually open the door, Genius is already positioned as the default infrastructure vendor rather than a late bidder.